Briefing Headline: Still the threat of severe gales (70mph gusts possible in far north of region) this afternoon/early evening. Snow risk
tomorrow and Saturday now much reduced.
Today: A fairly short-lived band of rather squally rain will transfer SE’wards across the region in the next few hours. Winds both ahead of this and during it could gust in to the 50-60mph bracket before easing for a short time after it. The winds will then increase again through this afternoon into the evening but the main threat of disruptive winds (gusts >60mph) should be confined to Cumbria and particularly the north end of the county where gusts could reach 70mph given good exposure to the west. Successive forecasts over the past 24 hours have tended to displace the strongest winds a little further northwards, hence we now estimate a maximum gust of the order of 70mph for north Cumbria, still strong enough to overturn high-sided vehicles and uproot trees. Coming southwards from Cumbria – although gusts up to 60mph may be encountered along exposed sections of the coast and on higher ground the winds this
afternoon and evening will generally be less strong (similar to what we’ve experienced in recent days) and for much of Lancashire,
Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Cheshire, apart from the odd isolated incident I don’t anticipate any major resilience issues. The
Amber/Yellow Warning issued yesterday for the whole of the northwest has now been updated and is attached above. A general moderation should kick in across the region later this evening.
Snow risk tonight and tomorrow: This has changed significantly over the past 24 hours. Whilst yesterday there was quite a pronounced signal for snow showers to affect parts of the region later tomorrow and into Saturday, the risk now looks much lower. Best to allow for some wintry showers (hail/sleet/snow) affecting the region later tonight and for a time tomorrow they are unlikely to amount to much or pose any major problems to travel. Where surfaces remain wet/damp/slushy from showers going into tomorrow night, icy patches are likely to form where no treatment is applied. The Yellow Alert for snow issued yesterday is under consideration and may be modified/withdrawn in the next few hours in light of the changed forecast.
Into the weekend and the first half of next week we will keep the unsettled weather pattern going with further wind and rain at times
although with no specific ‘events’ on the horizon as of yet.
I would be interested to hear of any significant wind-related impacts from around the region as we attempt to validate the current warning.
In the meantime please contact me for clarification on any of the above points,
Alan Goodman; Met Office Regional Advisor – NW England