Wednesday’s Weather Update

Met Office LogoAny leftover rain/sleet/snow should pull away to the southeast on Friday morning to leave an improving day though still with the risk of some wintry showers scattered around. Ice could once again become an issue on Friday night given the likelihood of meltwater or partially thawed snow etc. As for the weekend we’re likely to be in a run of rather cold NW’ly winds with the risk of further wintry showers and the chance of some snow, more especially at higher levels (typically above 200m). With temperatures falling close to or below freezing overnight ice will be an ongoing issue whereever showers occur.

As for the rest of today, the areas of rain, sleet and snow still affecting Cumbria and parts of Lancashire should start to clear away
eastwards and decay in the next few hours. Any significant snow should be confined to routes above 300/350m but the radar is showing mostly low intensity precipitation so I’m not anticipating any major issues from snow. However, with a fairly widespread frost expected overnight icy patches could become an issue, particularly across the aforementioned counties, at least where surfaces are not routinely treated. A Yellow Warning has been issued for the whole region to cover the risk of ice.

Now to developments tomorrow night and into Friday. The original concern here (you will recall…) was the threat of widespread heavy rain followed by potentially damaging winds. However, we are now increasingly confident that the low pressure centre responsible will take a much more southerly path across southern counties of England. That’s the good news. The bad news is that we will now lie to the north of the centre but may still fall within the precipitation ‘envelope’ associated with the low. With the air relatively cold there is a real likelihood that some of the rain will turn to snow. The current northern limit of precipitation appears to lie (very) approximately west

to east through north Lancashire. This, no doubt, will fluctuate in future forecasts but in broad terms there is a signal for the southern half of the region (Cheshire, Merseyside, Greater Manchester and part of Lancashire) to see a spell of rain, sleet and snow tomorrow evening and overnight. At this stage, depending on precipitation intensity, there could be a slight covering of snow by Friday breakfast time almost anywhere within this belt but the greatest threat from disruptive snow will be across the Pennine regions of east Cheshire and Greater Manchester (and possibly Lancashire). In terms of gauging snow amounts it’s still early days and by tomorrow morning’s update we should have a firmer idea on what to expect. At present a Yellow Alert is in force for snow tomorrow night but at present this only covers the extreme SE of Cheshire. This will need to be extended further into our region if the spread of precipitation I’ve indicated above is consistently signalled in future forecasts.

Below is a summary of current severe weather warnings in force across the region.ICE        YELLOW       ALL OF NW ENGLAND               VALID 1500 WED TO 1100 THU
SNOW   YELLOW       FAR SE OF CHESHIRE                VALID 0005 FRI TO 1000 FRI
ICE        YELLOW       N LANCS, CUMBRIA                   VALID 1500 FRI TO  1000 SAT
ICE        YELLOW       ALL OF NW ENGLAND               VALID 1500 SAT TO 1000 SUN

The warnings page is again a rash of yellow due to the quantity of weather in the pipeline but hopefully the above table clarifies things a
little.

As always please get in touch for clarification on any of the above issues.

An update briefing will be issued tomorrow,

Kind regards,

Alan

Alan Goodman; Met Office Regional Advisor – NW England

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pws/contact.html

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