Risk of disruptive weather conditions Tuesday/Wednesday

The Met Office Regional Advisor for NW England – Alan Goodman has sent our flood group the following message and Flood Guidance Statement:

Flood Risk Second January 2012 (Low)

Another deep low pressure centre is set to scuttle across northern Scotland later tonight and tomorrow morning, bringing a period of wet and windy weather to all the region.

The main period of heavy rain is likely to be during the second half of tonight. This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement, attached above, has Cumbria, Lancashire and Greater Manchester shaded Yellow (Low Flood Risk) for tomorrow and Wednesday with the commentary suggesting that either river and/or surface water issues may be the contributing factor to the elevated flood risk.

As the main rain area clears away around breakfast time tomorrow morning so the westerly winds will strengthen. As with all the previous strong wind events so far this winter it looks almost certain now that Cumbria will again take the highest gusts with 60-70mph possible for a time between around mid-morning and mid-afternoon. These could cause some issues for high-sided vehicles, especially on the more elevated/exposed sections of the M6 and the other higher-level routes. A few trees may also succumb with the potential for minor travel disruption across the northern half of Cumbria. Further south across the rest of Cumbria and into Lancashire maximum gusts will be typically in the 50-60mph bracket and further south across Cheshire 40-50mph with little, if any impacts
expected here. The current severe weather Alert for wind which covers the entire region, will be re-issued shortly to more accurately reflect those areas now considered at risk from disruptive gusts.

Beyond tomorrow the concern is for further rain crossing the region during Wednesday and the possibility of any additional river/surface water flooding, hence the continuation of the low flood risk for Cumbria, Lancashire and Greater Manchester.

All current warnings can, of course, be checked either via the web site http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html
That’s just about where we stand at present,

An update briefing will be issued tomorrow,

In the meantime please call if you require clarification on any of the above,


Alan Goodman; Met Office Regional Advisor – NW England



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