The clear signal emerging is that as we move from Friday into Saturday, so attention will shift from the south of the region to the north and specifically Cumbria. A separate stream of rain will, during Friday night, begin feeding in off the North Sea into NE England and across the Pennines into Cumbria. This rain looks set to be persistent and at times heavy, although, like its Friday counterpart, there is still some uncertainty as to exactly where it will become anchored and how much of the heavier rain makes it across into Cumbria. In this kind of set-up I would expect the larger (and potentially disruptive) rainfall totals to occur mainly to the east of the M6, particularly across the eastern halves of both Eden and Carlisle council domains and the adjacent north Pennine areas. The Amber alert currently in force for Saturday will also be updated in the near future. The FGS remains Amber for all areas except Cumbria – this reflects the potential for impacts of Friday’s rainfall to continue to be felt into Saturday whilst across Cumbria the level of impacts arising from Friday night’s and Saturday’s rain curently warrant Yellow (low flood risk), rather than Amber (Medium) although this will be carefully monitored by the Environment Agency and Flood Forecasting Centre in case it needs revision.
Across north Cumbria in particular the rain could linger right throughout Saturday and perhaps well into Saturday night although the general intensity should tend to diminish into Saturday night.
Elsewhere Saturday looks a much quieter day in general although with the air still ‘unstable’ a few sharp showers can’t be ruled out if skies brighten up and temperatures nudge upwards.
Today – Yellow warning for rain valid til midnight.
Friday – Amber warning for rain valid the whole day (in process of being updated)
Saturday – Yellow alert for rain valid the whole day (in process of being updated)
Either the Met Office website or Hazard Manager for all current warnings and rainfall radar. Monitoring particularly recommended later this afternoon and early evening as locally torrential downpours develop.