Below is the latest weather information for the North West from the Met Office:
The rain is now well-established across much of the region. Meanwhile the latest forecast guidance from Met Office Operations Centre has some minor changes to report from my earlier briefing.
1. Cumbria – The rain has been rather more extensive this morning, particularly across south Cumbria, and some further pulses of heavy rain are possible here over the next few hours. This evening, as the rain across Cumbria begins to edge northwards some of it could turn quite heavy, especially over the Carlisle and Eden domains and it could take all night for the rain to finally clear out of north Cumbria, hence the risk of surface water issues across the county can’t be discounted until the end of tonight.
2. Remaining areas – the main uncertainty is now the timing of a proper clearance through the course of this afternoon. I have previously suggested mid-afternoon as a likely time for things to improve but the latest forecast suggests that the clearance timing could vary considerably across the region from north to south. Currently Cheshire looks like it could see the drier weather first and Lancashire last (probably later this afternoon) but, this being weather forecasting, timings remain subject to error and, as always, the radar rainfall imagery will provide the best clues as to when things will finally improve.
In terms of warnings etc. there are currently no changes in severe weather warnings status i.e. yesterday’s Amber warning is still in force but is due to be updated in the next couple of hours. An updated Flood Guidance Statement is included below, Lancashire, Greater Manchester, Cheshire, Warrington and Halton, currently being on Red (High flood risk).
Any further significant developments will be communicated to you as soon as possible.
Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)