Ongoing risk of disruption from persistent rain

25 Sept 2012 Warning Map
25 Sept 2012 Warning Map

The latest forecast information is now to hand and the scenario overnight is largely unchanged with further outbreaks of rain affecting much of the region for a good part of this evening and overnight, the driest conditions liable to be located towards north and west Cumbria where currently things are dry. Although the majority of the rain will be in the ‘light to steady’ category there remains the potential for one or two heavier interludes this side of midnight. Hence, although the rate of rainfall accumulation will be generally slow there is still the potential for another 10-20 mm of rainfall across a wide swathe of the North West with the risk of ongoing flooding-related impacts lasting well into the night. By midnight we should be seeing the rain area start to withdraw from the north so Cumbria will be first to ‘dry up’ with Lancashire expected to follow later in the night. By breakfast time tomorrow what rain there is still affecting the region is likely to be largely confined to Cheshire and Merseyside with perhaps the odd pocket still affecting Greater Manchester and south Lancashire. Through tomorrow morning this residual rain should peter out but the low pressure centre responsible for the last two days of rain will not be very far away and as skies tend to brighten up and temperatures nudge upwards so a few sharp showers are possible by lunchtime/early afternoon, more especially across Cheshire, Merseyside and Greater Manchester. There is also a low probability of cloudier skies and some patchy (mainly light) rain feeding back over the Pennines and into the same areas at risk from showers but neither these nor the showers are expected to contribute much in the way of significant additional rainfall. Tomorrow night and Thursday look dry and settled.

This afternoon’s Flood Guidance Statement is attached for completion and in terms of severe weather warnings, once today’s Amber warning expires at midnight we still have a Yellow warning in force across all areas bar central/north Cumbria throughout tomorrow to cover residual flooding-related impacts.
That’s about all for now. I am away from the office tomorrow so if there are any further partner teleconferences required or other urgent enquiries regarding the state of the weather, could you please contact my colleague Graham Butler but urgent matters only please as Graham is well taken up with events on the other side of the Pennines, of which no doubt you are cognisant of.
With hopes for a speedy return to normal once the rain finally exits,

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)

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