Risk of minor disruption from persistent rain this evening, overnight and through Monday – Met Office update briefing
Please find below the latest commentary on the current wet spell and some further views on the changes taking place this week:
Current situation and updated forecast:
Last night’s rain has now almost cleared away and, apart from a narrow strip of showers feeding in off the Irish Sea to Lancashire, all will be dry for the next 4 to 5 hours or so. However, the next event (the last in the current series) will see rain spreading out of north Wales into Cheshire later this afternoon and then spreading further NE to Merseyside, Greater Manchester, Lancashire this evening, some of it spilling over into south Cumbria. For the aforementioned areas it looks a pretty wet night ahead with some of the rain on the heavy side. There remains some doubt about the northern and southern boundaries of the rain area with north Cumbria and south Cheshire liable to see least rain and relatively little disruption whilst Lancashire, Merseyside and Greater Manchester look to be the areas most at risk from any disruption, due largely to the persistence of the rain.
Through Monday we should expect further outbreaks of rain at times across almost anywhere within the region although with time the rain should become increasingly fragmented and somewhat lighter. However, it may not be until Monday evening/night that we finally witness a complete cessation.
Warnings/Flood Risk/Impacts etc.
The warnings ‘board’ has just been updated to take account of the latest forecast. This evening’s rain will not be covered by any warnings as any impacts this side of midnight should be minimal. However, a new Yellow Warning has now been issued for all areas except north Lancashire and Cumbria to cover the whole of Monday. The risk matrix tick depicts a low probability of significant disruption resulting, this most likely to result from surface water excess. Even in this part of the country which has suffered very little in comparison to others during the last week, the ground is pretty soggy so it wouldn’t take all that much rain to bring about surface water issues. Today’s Flood Guidance Statement will show Yellow (low flood risk) across all areas bar Cumbria with a risk of minor disruption from either surface water or river-based impacts both today and tomorrow before reverting to green (very low flood risk) from Tuesday onwards.
By the time we reach Tuesday the broad scale weather pattern changes, already alluded to in earlier briefings, will be starting to take hold as colder but mercifully drier N’lies develop. This should allow a slow but steady drying out but where water remains standing we will need to watch for overnight ice as temperatures drop close to or below freezing. There is no significant threat from snow etc. in the coming days but, as ever, a close watching brief will be kept on developments.
An update briefing will be issued at a similar time tomorrow morning,
In the meantime have a good day,
Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)