Risk of minor disruption from persistent rain

Met Office Logo

Risk of minor disruption from persistent rain this evening, overnight and through Monday – Met Office update briefing
Please find below the latest commentary on the current wet spell and some further views on the changes taking place this week:

Current situation and updated forecast:

Last night’s rain has now almost cleared away and, apart from a narrow strip of showers feeding in off the Irish Sea to Lancashire, all will be dry for the next 4 to 5 hours or so. However, the next event (the last in the current series) will see rain spreading out of north Wales into Cheshire later this afternoon and then spreading further NE to Merseyside, Greater Manchester, Lancashire this evening, some of it spilling over into south Cumbria. For the aforementioned areas it looks a pretty wet night ahead with some of the rain on the heavy side. There remains some doubt about the northern and southern boundaries of the rain area with north Cumbria and south Cheshire liable to see least rain and relatively little disruption whilst Lancashire, Merseyside and Greater Manchester look to be the areas most at risk from any disruption, due largely to the persistence of the rain.

Through Monday we should expect further outbreaks of rain at times across almost anywhere within the region although with time the rain should become increasingly fragmented and somewhat lighter. However, it may not be until Monday evening/night that we finally witness a complete cessation.

Warnings/Flood Risk/Impacts etc.

The warnings ‘board’ has just been updated to take account of the latest forecast. This evening’s rain will not be covered by any warnings as any impacts this side of midnight should be minimal. However, a new Yellow Warning has now been issued for all areas except north Lancashire and Cumbria to cover the whole of Monday. The risk matrix tick depicts a low probability of significant disruption resulting, this most likely to result from surface water excess. Even in this part of the country which has suffered very little in comparison to others during the last week, the ground is pretty soggy so it wouldn’t take all that much rain to bring about surface water issues. Today’s Flood Guidance Statement will show Yellow (low flood risk) across all areas bar Cumbria with a risk of minor disruption from either surface water or river-based impacts both today and tomorrow before reverting to green (very low flood risk) from Tuesday onwards.

Looking beyond:

By the time we reach Tuesday the broad scale weather pattern changes, already alluded to in earlier briefings, will be starting to take hold as colder but mercifully drier N’lies develop. This should allow a slow but steady drying out but where water remains standing we will need to watch for overnight ice as temperatures drop close to or below freezing. There is no significant threat from snow etc. in the coming days but, as ever, a close watching brief will be kept on developments.

An update briefing will be issued at a similar time tomorrow morning,

In the meantime have a good day,

Kind regards,

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)

Risk of localised disruption from rain Sunday/Monday – Met Office update

Met Office Logo

Good morning,

The forecast for the next 24 hours is a period of rain setting in from the south this afternoon, eventually reaching Cumbria this evening and continuing overnight before gradually withdrawing away to the North East tomorrow morning. The rain may not prove continuous throughout the event and may well only reach ‘steady’ intensities across a good part of the region. With the winds during this rainfall event coming from the E or NE the Pennines should hopefully ‘do their job’ and limit the likelihood of any disruption from the rainfall with most of the heavier rainfall falling over or to the east of the main high ground. The risk of any strong winds developing as the rain clears away tomorrow morning now looks extremely low.

Unfortunately that will not be the end of the story. Although we will enjoy a dry period from late Sunday morning through the afternoon the rain looks likely to return during the course of Sunday evening, more especially across Lancashire, Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Cheshire. This renewed rain could then last right through Sunday night and a good part of Monday, again ‘steady’ rain for the most part but with the odd heavier interlude quite possible before the rain fragments and finally clears away Monday evening.

Warnings/Flood Risk etc.

A Yellow Warning is now in force until midnight across the south of the region (Cheshire, south Merseyside and south/east Greater Manchester) to cover any minor impacts (surface water most likely) resulting from the portion of the rain that falls up to midnight. A second Yellow Warning covers all of Northwest England except Cumbria ,valid from midnight until 1000 tomorrow to cover tomorrow morning’s rain, whilst today’s Flood Guidance Statement (FGS, attached above) shows all of the region bar Cumbria on Yellow (low flood risk) for tomorrow for both surface water and river-related impacts. Although no severe weather warnings are currently in force across the region for Monday’s rain and the FGS is also green on Monday, the period of rainfall from tomorrow evening through Monday could still result in some minor impacts, chiefly from surface water excess, with Pennine areas most at risk.

From Tuesday onwards the threat from prolonged rainfall and risk of flooding should diminish steadily as the offending lows are finally given their marching orders and somewhat colder N to NE winds begin to assume dominance, bringing a few showers but also some sunshine.

An update briefing will be issued at around the same time tomorrow morning,

Kind regards,

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)