Just a brief update on the situation as we approach the New Year. Last night’s rain saw only very modest totals but the main thrust of the current ‘event’ will be reserved for tonight and tomorrow with persistent and occasionally heavy rain setting in across Cumbria probably this side of midnight then spreading to other parts of the Northwest and continuing throughout the rest of the night and tomorrow morning before a final clearance arrives from the west during tomorrow afternoon. A Yellow Warning (medium likelihood of low impacts) is in force across Cumbria and north Lancashire for this event although the start time has been pushed back to midnight tonight in view of the rain today being relatively light and patchy in nature and thus non-disruptive. Today’s Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) has both counties on Yellow (low flood risk) tomorrow for both river and surface water-based impacts.
Following fairly soon after the clearance tomorrow afternoon will be showers, these perhaps becoming organised into bands. Shower-activity will continue across much of the region throughout Saturday evening and overnight and with somewhat colder air returning so showers could turn wintry down to fairly low levels with soft hail at any level and the chance of some wet snow perhaps as low as 200m although any accumulations are more likely above 300-400m (excepting any temporary cover of soft hail from any heavier showers which could be observed down to sea level). During Sunday the showers will ease away, only for the next spell of rain and strong winds to move in during Sunday evening and into Monday. An updated Yellow Alert (low likelihood of medium impacts) is in force for this event, covering much of the region except east Cheshire and Greater Manchester, and valid from 1800 on Sunday to 1200 Monday. Today’s FGS has both Cumbria and Lancashire at low flood risk from this system on Monday. As well as the additional rainfall the winds associated with this system could become very strong for a short time on Monday – more on this in and any potential impacts in subsequent updates. Tuesday (New Years Day) should see brighter (but still breezier) conditions returning with a mixture of bright/sunny intervals and scattered showers – a better day overall.