Good afternoon Colleagues,
In the next few hours a band of precipitation will track eastwards across much of the Northwest. Whilst some sleet/wet snow is expected at higher levels, any heavier interludes could result in sleet/wet snow descending to relatively low levels, if only for a short while. As the band clears away, the cloud breaks and temperatures fall this evening, so ice may become a hazard on untreated surfaces. A Yellow warning was issued earlier this morning, focussed on the south end of the region (anywhere south of a line joining Chester to Manchester) and valid from 1500 this afternoon through until 1000 tomorrow morning. See Hazard Manager or the Met Office website http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map for more information on this wintry threat.
Tomorrow the focus returns to wind and wet with another period of rain, accompanied by strengthening S’ly winds, crossing the region from early afternoon through into the overnight period. A Yellow alert is already in force for this event, covering much of Lancashire (except the south) and all of Cumbria, valid from 1500 tomorrow afternoon until 0300 Saturday. Associated with this rain today’s Flood Guidance Statement has both Lancashire and Cumbria at Yellow (low) flood risk both tomorrow and again on Saturday with a medium likelihood of minor flood-related impacts resulting either from river overspill or surface water excess. After yesterday evening’s greater than expected wind impacts across Cumbria please note that although the Alert majors on the rainfall aspect, the winds later tomorrow afternoon and into the evening could reach similar speeds to what we saw yesterday.
Once this batch of wind and rain has moved through it’s a mix of bright/sunny/clearer intervals and occasional blustery showers for the remainder of the weekend before the next major development lines up to take aim during the course of Monday. The latest forecast data to hand suggests another spell of potentially prolonged rainfall allied to strengthening winds during the second half of Monday but I’ll stop there as detail and timing will no doubt change between now and then.
Just to remind you of the feature I brought to your attention yesterday, namely the new facility (‘Tell a Forecaster’) to enable emergency responders and the general public to feed back weather-related impacts and images either via the WOW (Weather Observations Website) or through the Met Office Mobile site, both of whose links are listed below.
With kind regards,
Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)