Risk of weather related disruption this weekend

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  • Snow risk today – The band of rain now moving in from the Irish Sea will turn to snow over the higher ground, mainly across Cumbria with some transient accumulations possible over the higher level routes, especially the trans-Pennine crossings in the east of the county. This is covered by the Yellow warning for snow currently in force.
  • Heavy rain today – some of the rain this afternoon will be locally heavy and result in areas of standing water for a time. No specific warning in force to cover for this but one or two localised minor impacts to transport possible.
  • Ice risk overnight – as skies turn somewhat clearer behind the rain this evening so temperatures will drop away with the risk of some ice developing later on untreated surfaces. A new Yellow warning will shortly be issued for the whole of the northwest. Complicating the situation will be the possibility of some wintry showers crossing the region later this evening and overnight. These could give some slight accumulations of snow, mainly above 200m with again Cumbria the county most likely to catch the showers. The Yellow ice warning will include a mention of the possibility of snow.
  • Coastal flood risk tonight/tomorrow – this morning’s Flood Guidance Statement again confirms the whole of the Northwest coastline on Yellow (low flood risk) throughout tomorrow. Specifically, there is a medium likelihood of some minor coastal impacts in association with both tonight’s close-to-midnight high tide (Liverpool 2341, Blackpool 2335, Heysham 2348, 2400 Workington ) and tomorrow’s lunchtime high tide (Liverpool 1200, Blackpool 1155, Heysham 1208, Workington 1218) resulting from a combination of the high tide, strong wind-induced surge and high waves. S to SW winds will strengthen tomorrow morning with gusts of 60mph+ along exposed coasts and hills and occasional gusts of 40-50mph inland, especially in association with passing blustery/squally showers. A pre-existing Yellow warning is in force for tomorrow’s winds covering NW Lancashire and W Cumbria.

There is nothing more specific at this stage to add beyond tomorrow with improving conditions for Sunday but the promise of much more unsettled weather right throughout next week.

Please refer to the Met Office website for full details of all severe weather warnings.

An update briefing will be issued tomorrow morning,

With kind regards,

Alan

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)

Ice Warning

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Good Afternoon Colleagues,

Just to alert you to the recent issue of a Yellow warning (medium likelihood of minor impacts) for ice on untreated surfaces overnight. Scattered showers overnight will comprise a mixture of rain, sleet and snow with the chance of a slight covering of snow by the early hours of Monday morning on some of the higher level routes in particular. Clearer intervals between the showers may well allow already wet/slushy surfaces to freeze, again more especially at higher levels. The warning covers a good part of the Northwest away from the coast and can be viewed in full on the Met Office website and is valid from 1800 this evening to 1000 tomorrow morning,

Regards,

Alan

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)

NW weather update briefing

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Good morning Colleagues,

Away from the coastal strip there are no weather-related issues today. Along the coast the flooding risk will peak along with the high tide shortly after midday. This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) continues to show the region’s coastline at Amber with a medium likelihood of some significant impacts resulting. Various Flood Advisory Service teleconferences are in progress this morning to plan the response in more detail and all relevant coastal flood warnings are in force. The winds themselves should not prove especially disruptive, peaking at 50-60mph along the coast. A Yellow warning for the winds remains in force along the entire coastal strip for the remainder of today.

A couple of changes to note for the coming weekend. Firstly tomorrow – a rather disorganised weather system will spread some areas of rain northwards across the region later tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. Some of the rain may turn heavy and over the higher ground of Cumbria in particular the rain may turn to snow for a time with the possibility of temporary accumulations resulting along some of the higher routes as we approach lunchtime tomorrow. A Yellow warning is being prepared for this eventuality and will be available for viewing on Hazard Manager shortly. Winds everywhere tomorrow will be light with no other issues of note.

Secondly, on Sunday the NE’wards spread of the next batch of rain and strengthening winds is a little slower than was suggested yesterday with the first half of the day likely to be dry, the rain then spreading in during the afternoon.

On Monday strong S to SW winds will be the main feature, especially along exposed sections of the coast where further minor flooding impacts are possible around the time of high tide between 1430 and 1500 in the afternoon. The FGS is Yellow along the entire coastline for Monday, as of yet there are no severe weather warnings in force.

From Tuesday onwards the Atlantic low responsible for Sunday and Monday’s weather will gradually blow itself out, heralding a (somewhat) quieter period of weather for the rest of next week.

Updates will be issued as per necessary over the course of the weekend,

Regards,

Alan

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)