Risk of weather related disruption this weekend

  • Snow risk today – The band of rain now moving in from the Irish Sea will turn to snow over the higher ground, mainly across Cumbria with some transient accumulations possible over the higher level routes, especially the trans-Pennine crossings in the east of the county. This is covered by the Yellow warning for snow currently in force.
  • Heavy rain today – some of the rain this afternoon will be locally heavy and result in areas of standing water for a time. No specific warning in force to cover for this but one or two localised minor impacts to transport possible.
  • Ice risk overnight – as skies turn somewhat clearer behind the rain this evening so temperatures will drop away with the risk of some ice developing later on untreated surfaces. A new Yellow warning will shortly be issued for the whole of the northwest. Complicating the situation will be the possibility of some wintry showers crossing the region later this evening and overnight. These could give some slight accumulations of snow, mainly above 200m with again Cumbria the county most likely to catch the showers. The Yellow ice warning will include a mention of the possibility of snow.
  • Coastal flood risk tonight/tomorrow – this morning’s Flood Guidance Statement again confirms the whole of the Northwest coastline on Yellow (low flood risk) throughout tomorrow. Specifically, there is a medium likelihood of some minor coastal impacts in association with both tonight’s close-to-midnight high tide (Liverpool 2341, Blackpool 2335, Heysham 2348, 2400 Workington ) and tomorrow’s lunchtime high tide (Liverpool 1200, Blackpool 1155, Heysham 1208, Workington 1218) resulting from a combination of the high tide, strong wind-induced surge and high waves. S to SW winds will strengthen tomorrow morning with gusts of 60mph+ along exposed coasts and hills and occasional gusts of 40-50mph inland, especially in association with passing blustery/squally showers. A pre-existing Yellow warning is in force for tomorrow’s winds covering NW Lancashire and W Cumbria.

There is nothing more specific at this stage to add beyond tomorrow with improving conditions for Sunday but the promise of much more unsettled weather right throughout next week.

Please refer to the Met Office website for full details of all severe weather warnings.

An update briefing will be issued tomorrow morning,

With kind regards,

Alan

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)

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