For Sunday and Monday it is YELLOW (Low Risk) for Cumbria.
Heavy rain is forecast for Cumbria late Saturday night, all of Sunday and into Monday morning.
In terms of the impacts locally in Cumbria we currently have 2 Flood Alerts in force for the Upper Derwent due to Derwentwater levels remaining high and the Rothay, Brathay, Winster and Leven Catchments due to the high level of Windermere.
The rain on Sunday and Monday will be heavy and prolonged enough and falling on to saturated ground that minor impacts could occur in Cumbria. Impacts include the localised flooding of land, roads and perhaps some individual properties. It is likely a number of Fluvial Flood Alerts and even possible that an odd Flood Warning may be issued as confidence in the rainfall forecast increases and rivers begin to respond to the rainfall. It is difficult to pinpoint at this time which areas are most likely to be affected.
The situation is being closely monitored by our Duty Officers and our Field Teams have been out clearing grids and debris screens..
The coastal flood risk is VERY LOW throughout the next five days as astronomical high tides remain on the lower side this weekend but there may be some large waves generated by forecast strong south-westerly winds over the weekend and into Monday. There are signs of a switch in wind direction to a colder northerly direction into next weekend, which will coincide with next high astronomical spring tides cycle from 28th February 2014 to the 5th March 2014.
Late Saturday night and through to Monday morning it is expected that rainfall will be widespread 10-20 mm across the region in 24 hours.
High likelihood of 30mm and 40mm in 12 hour totals in upland areas of Cumbria
Up to 80-90 mm (over a 24 hour period) may be recorded on the Cumbrian Fells, with long spells of rain with rates of 4-8 mm per hour.
The Met Office Severe Weather Warning Service have issued a Yellow Alert of Rain for North West England : Cumbria valid from 0015 Sun 23 Feb to 0600 Mon 24 Feb 2014
Please continue to monitor weather forecasts and the Met Office and Environment Agency websites for Weather Warnings and for Flood Alerts and Warnings in Force.
North Area Flood Resilience Team
Ghyll Mount, Gillan Way, Penrith 40 Business Park, Penrith, Cumbria