Weather Briefing for Sunday 23rd and Monday 24th February 2014

Environment Agency Logo

Dear All,

For Sunday and Monday it is YELLOW (Low Risk) for Cumbria.

Expected Impacts

Heavy rain is forecast for Cumbria late Saturday night, all of Sunday and into Monday morning.
In terms of the impacts locally in Cumbria we currently have 2 Flood Alerts in force for the Upper Derwent due to Derwentwater levels remaining high and the Rothay, Brathay, Winster and Leven Catchments due to the high level of Windermere.

The rain on Sunday and Monday will be heavy and prolonged enough and falling on to saturated ground that minor impacts could occur in Cumbria. Impacts include the localised flooding of land, roads and perhaps some individual properties. It is likely a number of Fluvial Flood Alerts and even possible that an odd Flood Warning may be issued as confidence in the rainfall forecast increases and rivers begin to respond to the rainfall. It is difficult to pinpoint at this time which areas are most likely to be affected.
The situation is being closely monitored by our Duty Officers and our Field Teams have been out clearing grids and debris screens..

The coastal flood risk is VERY LOW throughout the next five days as astronomical high tides remain on the lower side this weekend but there may be some large waves generated by forecast strong south-westerly winds over the weekend and into Monday. There are signs of a switch in wind direction to a colder northerly direction into next weekend, which will coincide with next high astronomical spring tides cycle from 28th February 2014 to the 5th March 2014.

General Situation

Late Saturday night and through to Monday morning it is expected that rainfall will be widespread 10-20 mm across the region in 24 hours.
High likelihood of 30mm and 40mm in 12 hour totals in upland areas of Cumbria
Up to 80-90 mm (over a 24 hour period) may be recorded on the Cumbrian Fells, with long spells of rain with rates of 4-8 mm per hour.

The Met Office Severe Weather Warning Service have issued a Yellow Alert of Rain for North West England : Cumbria valid from 0015 Sun 23 Feb to 0600 Mon 24 Feb 2014
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=nw&from=rss&sn=3ACE07E8-313A-3F1F-62BA-53E6A2D40516_1_NW

Please continue to monitor weather forecasts and the Met Office and Environment Agency websites for Weather Warnings and for Flood Alerts and Warnings in Force.
Best regards
David

David Snaith
North Area Flood Resilience Team
Environment Agency
Ghyll Mount, Gillan Way, Penrith 40 Business Park, Penrith, Cumbria

Risk of disruption from wind/coastal impacts today/tonight

Met Office Logo

Good morning colleagues,

The main focus of attention today is the effect of the strengthening S to SW winds on the lunchtime high tide up and down the Northwest coastline. Due to the medium/high risk of flooding today in other parts of England and Wales an early Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) was issued this morning at 0700. This confirms the coastal flood risk for ourselves as Yellow (low risk) throughout today with a medium likelihood of minor impacts occurring either side of today’s lunchtime high tide. Just to remind you this is scheduled for 1200 at Liverpool, 1155 at Blackpool, 1208 at Heysham and 1218 at Workington. The FGS highlights the risk of flooding resulting from a combination of the high astronomical tide, the strong winds, large waves and the surge due to the effect of the winds on the tide.

After this morning’s ice warning expires at 1100 the only other severe weather warning in force across the Northwest will be the Yellow for the winds which currently runs until 0300 tomorrow morning for an area including the whole of west Cumbria, the western half of Lancashire, all of Merseyside, the western end of Greater Manchester and the northwestern end of Cheshire. Along the coast gusts of 50-60mph will develop at times today, especially in association with passing showers, the odd gust perhaps exceeding 60mph. Away from the immediate coast occasional gusts of 40-50mph are possible, again most likely as showers come through. This evening, however, as the direction veers from S to SW to more of a W to SW so some of the stronger gusts along the coast may penetrate further inland for a time and this may necessitate a redrawing of the eastern boundary of the warning. More on this later this morning if and when it is revised. By midnight the winds should be easing down nicely.

Beyond today the weather will remain in unsettled mode throughout the coming week with continued vigilance advised.

I will update you regarding any changes to the strong wind warning, other than that I wish you all a good day.

With kind regards,

Alan

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)