June Weather Update

Environment Agency Logo

Hi All,

Just an update on the weather forecast for the coming days.  Saturday is the day of most concern due to the forecast for thunderstorms but there is still a lot of uncertainty around where these thunderstorms may hit.  We have been updating all the District Councils, Lead Local Flood Authority and emergency services with this information also.

Headline

Turning more unsettled late Friday onwards, particularly on Saturday when disruptive rainfall is possible..

Outbreaks of mainly light rain in far western parts today, dry elsewhere. However, by Friday evening, very warm and moist air is drawn northwards from the continent across England and Wales bringing outbreaks of rain or showers into the west. A showery day on Saturday with the potential for isolated very heavy and thundery downpours locally. The central belt of the country looks most likely to see these, however details remain uncertain.

Cooler air by Sunday and dry for most, but isolated heavy showers may form in the south-westerly breeze. Heavy showers again on Monday, with further potential for organised, thundery rain crossing into southern England however details remain uncertain. A showery set-up is likely on Tuesday, some of which may be heavy at times.

Rainfall Forecast NW and Cumbria

Saturday 7 June 2014

– Very warm and moist air will be dragged northwards from the continent, interacting with a cold front which moves in from the west early Saturday.

– Thunderstorms are likely to be associated with this, with the potential for isolated heavy downpours. Hail is also possible;

– Most likely rainfall totals will be for widespread 10-20mm with locally 30mm falling in a period of 3-6hrs or less.

– Rainfall is unlikely to be tied to the high ground with low-lying areas also vulnerable;

– There is a high likelihood that HRAs will be required;

– – Whilst there is good confidence in the broadscale meteorological detail, confidence continues to remain low on the location of the most intense downpours. .

– Isolated but heavy showers are likely to follow the main rainfall feature late into Saturday night.

Sunday 8 June 2014

– Most areas will remain dry on Sunday, however isolated showers are expected to move through the area on the southwesterly breeze. Some of these have the potential to be heavy, giving totals of 10mm in 1 hour.

– Showers will probably be heaviest during the afternoon in response to daytime heating – and perhaps most likely towards the west of the region;

– Most likely widespread accumulations will remain low, however some spots may see 10-15mm in 3 – 6hrs;

– There is a low likelihood that HRAs will be required.

Monday 9 June 2014

– Showers will move northwards through the region on Monday some of which may be heavy at times.

– Widespread totals will be in the order of 5-15mm, with the majority of this falling in 3-6hrs or less;

– There is a low probability that these showers will intensify and become more widespread for a time during Monday increasing the rainfall totals locally.

– There is a low likelihood that HRAs will be required.

Tuesday 10 June 2014

– Showers are expected to move across the region throughout the day on the south-westerly breeze.

– They will probably be heaviest during the afternoon in response to daytime heating.

– Most of these showers are expected to be light to moderate,

 

Many thanks,

Maria Ullyart

Flood Resilience Advisor
Environment Agency