This is just an early heads up that we may be seeing some further intense rain during Friday evening and Saturday evening. Current forecast is for rain to move into the Region on both evenings giving some intense rainfall. The current locations which may be worst affected will be high ground of Western and Southern Cumbria. Early indications is that there is the potential for some surface water issues and rivers will again rise. We expect to be issuing further Flood Alerts but do not expect to issue any Flood Warnings at this time.
We will get a better more accurate forecast tomorrow so will endeavour to send a further update tomorrow.
A message has also been sent out on Cumbria Community Messaging, please take the time to register to receive warnings and information from this service if you haven’t already done so.
Flood Warning Duty Officer
The much-heralded leftovers of ex-Hurricane Gonzalo remain on course to impact the UK later tonight and through tomorrow. Whilst there is little overall change in the general forecast sequence (bands of rain moving quickly through during the early hours of tomorrow morning accompanied by freshening S to SW winds, these then turning W to NW’ly tomorrow morning as somewhat clearer weather with occasional blustery/squally showers tucks in behind the rain) there remains some doubt regarding the maximum wind speeds we will be subjected to. What looks a safe bet is that across the Northwest the windiest period will be in the clearer W to NW’ly regime from around breakfast time tomorrow morning through until late afternoon. In particular, conditions in and around any passing showers could become especially gusty. Yesterday’s Yellow Alert (very low likelihood of some significant impacts) for winds has been re-issued this morning and again covers the entire Northwest, the period of validity having been extended out to 1800 tomorrow evening. Please take a look of the warning whose text refers to the possibility of inland gusts of 55mph+ with 60-70mph gusts possible along exposed section of our coastline (and for the Northwest, over the higher level Cumbrian and trans-Pennine routes), sufficient to cause some disruption on the transport networks and possibly affect some of the weaker, more susceptible trees across the region. There is also the possibility of disruption to power transmission where lines are very exposed to the W/NW. On the roads/motorways allow for the possibility of disruption at the usual suspect locations e.g. Thelwall on the M6, Barton Bridge on the M60, the Runcorn/Widnes Bridge on the A533 and the higher-level sections of the M6 and M62.
By tomorrow evening a gradual moderation in the winds should be setting in. The remainder of this week sees the weather remaining in a changeable, albeit non-disruptive mood.
That’s how things stand at present. The situation will be reviewed early tomorrow morning and an update briefing may be issued if there is any additional detail worthy of communication. If no update appears you can safely assume that the details above continue to apply.
Wishing you all a good afternoon,
Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)
The fine weather has finally broken and we are going to be experiencing a rather more wet period throughout today and tomorrow. The current forecast is as follows:-
Heavy and persistent rainfall is expected late Friday into Saturday morning, with some isolated, short torrential bursts likely. The generally light rain over Cumbria this morning is forecast to increase from around 3pm today and to continue over Cumbria, spreading southwards to most of the region by around 5am Saturday morning.
The highest rainfall amounts will be over high ground in Cumbria. The front will give several hours of persistent rain with some particularly heavy downpours, the rain is likely to continue until after midday on Saturday.
However we do have very dry catchments and low river levels which is positive as the likelihood of any minor impacts from river flooding is low. As the day goes on we will be monitoring the effects of the rainfall and there may be a chance that later today we may issue some Flood Alerts for some areas of Cumbria.
The forecast for late Saturday and Sunday is for occasional showers, with more rain on Monday.
Flood Resilience Advisor