The much-heralded leftovers of ex-Hurricane Gonzalo remain on course to impact the UK later tonight and through tomorrow. Whilst there is little overall change in the general forecast sequence (bands of rain moving quickly through during the early hours of tomorrow morning accompanied by freshening S to SW winds, these then turning W to NW’ly tomorrow morning as somewhat clearer weather with occasional blustery/squally showers tucks in behind the rain) there remains some doubt regarding the maximum wind speeds we will be subjected to. What looks a safe bet is that across the Northwest the windiest period will be in the clearer W to NW’ly regime from around breakfast time tomorrow morning through until late afternoon. In particular, conditions in and around any passing showers could become especially gusty. Yesterday’s Yellow Alert (very low likelihood of some significant impacts) for winds has been re-issued this morning and again covers the entire Northwest, the period of validity having been extended out to 1800 tomorrow evening. Please take a look of the warning whose text refers to the possibility of inland gusts of 55mph+ with 60-70mph gusts possible along exposed section of our coastline (and for the Northwest, over the higher level Cumbrian and trans-Pennine routes), sufficient to cause some disruption on the transport networks and possibly affect some of the weaker, more susceptible trees across the region. There is also the possibility of disruption to power transmission where lines are very exposed to the W/NW. On the roads/motorways allow for the possibility of disruption at the usual suspect locations e.g. Thelwall on the M6, Barton Bridge on the M60, the Runcorn/Widnes Bridge on the A533 and the higher-level sections of the M6 and M62.
By tomorrow evening a gradual moderation in the winds should be setting in. The remainder of this week sees the weather remaining in a changeable, albeit non-disruptive mood.
That’s how things stand at present. The situation will be reviewed early tomorrow morning and an update briefing may be issued if there is any additional detail worthy of communication. If no update appears you can safely assume that the details above continue to apply.
Wishing you all a good afternoon,
Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)