Christmas Update

Met Office Logo

Good afternoon,

Developments later on Boxing Day and into holiday Saturday have been causing us a bit of a headache for a few days now. Yes, there has been a consistent signal for a significant low pressure centre to develop close to the UK and impact upon the nation during that period but the track and intensity of the system have been impossible to pin down as successive computer model runs produced new scenarios. The next 24 hours should see a clearer picture emerging but there is still much to play for in terms of the track of the low and the resulting weather and potential impacts emanating from it.

Given the impending Christmas break it was important to have some form of alert out today but invariably in such an uncertain situation you will need to keep abreast of changes in the forecast and associated impacts through Christmas and into Boxing Day.

The most probable scenario at this stage is for the aforementioned low to track across the UK, its intensifying centre passing close to the England/Scotland border come midnight Friday/Saturday. The exact track is important as the associated precipitation immediately to the north of the centre will be falling into what will be cold air, cold enough for snow to reach the ground and perhaps accumulate, especially at higher levels. Further south any snow should be more transient and more likely to revert to rain. With a deepening low crossing the country no surprises for guessing that wind will feature in the forecast although to what degree remains uncertain, the coastal fringes being at greatest risk from any disruptive winds.

To capture all of this the Met Office have issued a yellow alert for both snow and wind (risk level currently a low likelihood of significant impacts), valid from 1500 Friday to 1500 Saturday and covering almost all of Cumbria as well as the far north of Lancashire. Please see the full version of the warning on the Met Office website. I should add that the far north of Cumbria is also included in a yellow warning for ice tonight as scattered evening showers are followed by clearer skies with a consequent risk of ice forming on untreated surfaces. Again see the usual sources for the full version of the warning.

Once the Friday/Saturday event is through we look to be entering a quieter phase in the weather as high pressure builds in from the west to give a more settled (though likely chilly) feel to the closing days of 2014.

This will be my final briefing to you for 2014 but I dare say you’ll be hearing updates from my team colleagues as the week progresses. In the meantime I wish you all (again) a very happy Christmas and New Year,

With kind regards,

Alan

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)

Christmas Weather

Met Office Logo

Good morning,

No major changes to report in the forecast or severe weather warnings status, the rain currently looking more extensive and heavier on the radar than it’s been for some time with further spells of rain, heavy at times, through the remainder of the day, although as the afternoon progresses so we should start to see the back edge of the rain band making some SE’wards progress into the county, with a final clearance due around early to mid-evening.

The Yellow warning remains in force until midnight with continued minor impact potential. Likewise today’s Flood Guidance Statement shows the county on Yellow (low) flood risk for both river and surface water excess. Glancing at the observations Keswick and Shap have recorded 41mm and 53mm respectively in the 36 hours leading up to 0600 GMT this morning. Nothing remarkable there by Cumbrian standards. However, the situation deeper into the Lake District gets much more interesting with as much as 180mm of rain recorded at the Environment Agency’s Honister Pass rain gauge in the 24 hours to 0300 GMT today. The power of the fells and the topography of the central Lakes area in terms of orographic rainfall production never fails to impress. Not surprisingly there are various flood alerts and one flood warning currently in force across the county. The latest radar rainfall imagery can be viewed as always on either Hazard Manager or the Met Office website.

Thankfully it’s all change for tomorrow with a much brighter, drier day in prospect, still a few showers coming through on a brisk breeze but feeling a whole lot better, albeit cooler. Better still for Christmas Day with light winds, sunny intervals and a nice crisp feel to the day.
Still much uncertainty regarding developments later on Boxing day and the weekend, a spell of rain/wind looking inevitable but hopefully not to any greatly disruptive extent.

We’ll leave it there for now, I’ll update again if any warnings are issued for the weekend.

With kind regards,

Alan

Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)

Local Flood Risk Strategy Consultation

Cumbria County Council Logo

Cumbria County Council is now the lead authority in Cumbria on local flood risk management and this strategy identifies how it will be done.
Cumbria County Council officers will be presenting the draft local flood risk strategy. There will also be an opportunity to ask questions, give views and comment as part of the consultation process.
All welcome, refreshments provided.

Full details can be found at www.haveyoursay.org.uk

Get in touch
For further information contact the Local Flood Risk Management
Team at Cumbria County Council on 01228 221330 or lfrm@cumbria.gov.uk