Month: November 2015

LATEST WEATHER SEQUENCE:
The rain, already into parts of Lancashire and Cumbria, will be generally light at first this afternoon, with the more serious rain arriving through the course of this afternoon. Then from later this afternoon through this evening a period of fairly persistent and locally heavy rain is expected for much of the region except perhaps in the south where Cheshire, especially the south of the county, may escape much of the heavier rainfall. During this evening the persistent, heavy rain will tend to become more focussed across Cumbria and the Lancashire Pennines but even further south further locally heavy outbreaks of rain may continue for a time overnight, especially across the western Pennine upslopes. Through Sunday we’ll see further rain at times across the Northwest but more especially over Cumbria and the Lancashire/Greater Manchester Pennines where some of the rain will again be heavy, albeit waxing and waning in area/extent. During Sunday evening the more persistent rain should finally depart as somewhat clearer conditions arrive from the west, though with the risk of showers through the early hours of Monday, some of which could themselves be quite sharp.
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING STATUS/FLOOD RISK:
This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement now has two area As within the Northwest where the flood risk rating is a medium likelihood of severe impacts, firstly the area of S/W/Central Cumbria which we became aware of yesterday afternoon but now in addition we have an area of E/NE Lancashire also at medium likelihood of severe impacts. The rest of the Northwest (bar south Cheshire) remains on yellow (low likelihood of significant impacts). The flood risk comprises a combination of river and surface water flooding. The amber flood risk status runs today and tomorrow with all areas reverting to yellow for Monday and Tuesday, emphasising the ongoing nature of the flood risk. The current Met Office yellow and amber severe weather warnings have just been updated and are on the Met Office website.
MONDAY/TUESDAY:
Much of Monday daytime should be dry but the next batch of rain is likely to arrive in the evening with further rain possible during Tuesday and Wednesday. However, confidence in the exact track of these subsequent weather systems, together with the extent and amount of rain they may generate, is fairly low at present and hence their effect on the flood risk is difficult to quantify at present. What I can say is that these systems should be moving through reasonably quickly. In terms of amount of rain this weekend’s event will be by some way the biggest.