There remains a fair degree of uncertainty as to exactly where across northern England the rainfall will be most persistent/heaviest and consequently where the largest accumulations will be, and also how those accumulations will translate into impacts. The latest data to hand places the largest rainfall totals across the central, S and SE’ern parts of Cumbria and just over the border into N Yorkshire but all will depend upon how what is a complex meteorological set-up, resolves itself.
General weather sequence:
Tomorrow’s rain will reach Lancashire and then Cumbria approximately between midday and early afternoon. Thereafter it’s a case of outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, especially over the higher ground, through until later on Saturday. The rain will likely wax and wane, both in areal extent and in intensity, with a few drier interludes from time to time. As Saturday progresses so the rain should become lighter and increasingly fragmented.
Severe weather warning status:
Yesterday’s amber rainfall alert covering approximately the eastern two thirds of Cumbria remains in force and has just been updated (see attached). The risk rating remains the same (medium likelihood of medium level impacts) as does the validity time (from midnight tomorrow night until midnight Saturday/Sunday).
Also please note that a separate yellow alert for rain also remains in force (low likelihood of medium level impacts) across the rest of Cumbria and Lancashire N of approximately Preston, valid from 1500 tomorrow afternoon until midnight Saturday/Sunday (attached above). Both these warnings are subject to constant review and may be updated again later today.
This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) shows Cumbria on yellow (low flood risk) through Friday then amber (medium flood risk) during Saturday and back to yellow for Sunday for residual river impacts. Lancashire remains on yellow throughout the weekend. The flood risk through the period will be a combination of surface water-based impacts and those due to river response.
Looking beyond Boxing Day:
Sunday is looking largely dry, once any residual light rain has cleared up. However, further rain is expected in sometime during Monday and again later on Tuesday. Amounts hard to specify at this time range but one thing to note is the potential for some very strong winds as we head towards the middle of next week. More on this aspect once we’ve got the weekend’s rainfall dealt with.
For the latest information please refer to the following places: