Attention today is on the wind. There is currently a Yellow warning in force for all of the Northwest except for much of Cheshire. However, away from west and north Cumbria (where a gust of 61mph was recorded at 0900 at St. Bees Head) the wind speeds are some way below the levels we were envisaging yesterday and the latest forecast data to hand now suggests a less windy day with a reduced risk of disruption. West Cumbria, and especially the coastal strip, will see the strongest gusts of the order of 60-70mph for a few more hours so still a risk of some disruption to travel and possibly also to power supplies. Further south along the coast gusts of 50-60mph are possible but inland across Cheshire, Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Lancashire little, if any disruption is expected with wind speeds mostly keeping below 35-40mph. There will be a general decrease in wind strength from mid-afternoon through into the evening which takes us nicely onto Christmas Day and Boxing Day, both of which should be relatively quiet days with light winds, bright/sunny spells and just one or two showers.
A Yellow alert is already in force nation-wide for Friday’s wind and rain. These are due in during the second half of Thursday night, the rain lasting for several hours before being replaced on Friday morning with blustery/squally showers. Some localised disruption to transport and power supplies is possible as a result of the wind with some rainfall-related impacts also possible, especially across Cumbria where the accumulated rainfall totals from the initial rain belt and the subsequent showers will be highest.
There will be revisions made shortly to the current severe weather warnings later this morning (most likely a scaling back of today’s Yellow wind warning and a more targeted wind/rain alert for Friday), these will be communicated as and when they appear.
In the meantime there’ll be no briefing tomorrow you’ll be glad to hear, the next update will be on Boxing Day morning by which time we should have a reasonable fix on Friday’s wind/rain,
Have a happy, relaxing day tomorrow,
With kind regards,
Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)