Good Afternoon Colleagues,
Today is one of the ‘quieter’ days with occasional showers affecting mainly Cumbria and Lancashire, wintry on higher ground but not causing any resilience issues.
Tomorrow the next batch of wind and rain will arrive from the southwest to reach all areas by mid/late morning, perhaps preceded by a short spell of snow across the higher ground in Cumbria. Some of the rain will turn heavy, especially across Cumbria and Lancashire, accompanied by a freshening S to SE’ly wind. The rain may well become lighter and more intermittent for a time during tomorrow afternoon/evening but a further pulse of rain could return, especially across the more southern parts of the region, during tomorrow night, before a proper clearance moves in during the early hours of Tuesday. It will remain windy throughout Tuesday, especially across Cumbria and down the Irish Sea coast where gusts of 50-60mph are possible. Occasional blustery showers will feed in on the SW’ly wind and with colder air in place these will be wintry to fairly low levels so the chance of a little sleet/wet snow in any heavier showers during Tuesday.
Having digested the above you might be a little surprised to find that the nationwide Yellow Alert that was posted for Monday and Tuesday has now been significantly trimmed back to focus only on those areas where the weather is expected to have an appreciable impact. Here in the Northwest we are now ‘warnings-free’ over the next few days. This does not necessarily mean we are completely out of the woods as regards impacts from the forthcoming rain/wind, just that any potential impacts are not considered at this stage to merit specific warnings. The forecast, needless to say, remains under constant review and any changes will be communicated to you as soon as possible.
Now an update for Christmas Day/Boxing Day, and still we hold out the promise of some reasonable conditions on both days. The deep low pressure centre responsible for tomorrow’s wind/rain should, by early Wednesday, have moved sufficiently far to the north of the UK to allow the winds to fall relatively light in our region. Wednesday should see a fair amount of dry, bright weather with a little sunshine at times. There is a shower risk but they should be fairly well scattered. It’ll feel a little on the chilly side and any showers could yield a little sleet/wet snow higher up (300/400m). Boxing Day is looking broadly similar, largely dry with broken cloud and some sunshine with relatively light winds and just the odd isolated shower, a good opportunity to get outdoors and compensate for any excesses the previous day.
Remember you can keep right up to date with all the latest developments on the Met Office website,
With kind regards,
Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)