The Met Office Regional Advisor for NW England – Alan Goodman has sent our flood group the following message and Flood Guidance Statement:
The low pressure development that I have been referring to repeatedly over the last few days has now played its final trick and decided to track even further south (through the English Channel) than was predicted yesterday. Hence yesterday afternoon’s briefing which advised a risk of rain/sleet/snow up as far north as Lancashire with the possibility of disruptive snow, especially over the Pennine areas, no longer holds true. Whilst there is still some uncertainty as to how far north any rain/sleet/snow will reach, the risk of disruption now looks minimal with most, if not all of the region now set to miss it altogether. The Yellow Alert in force for snow that just fringed into Cheshire will be withdrawn further to the south. Hence, after all the initial concerns I had regarding rain, wind and latterly snow the final outcome is likely to be close to nil, a classic illustration of the vagaries of early 21st century medium-range forecasting.
Any leftover rain/sleet/snow should pull away to the southeast on Friday morning to leave an improving day though still with the risk of some wintry showers scattered around. Ice could once again become an issue on Friday night given the likelihood of meltwater or partially thawed snow etc. As for the weekend we’re likely to be in a run of rather cold NW’ly winds with the risk of further wintry showers and the chance of some snow, more especially at higher levels (typically above 200m). With temperatures falling close to or below freezing overnight ice will be an ongoing issue whereever showers occur. Continue reading