The rain (and strongest of the winds) associated with the storm system crossing Scotland have now moved off and the rest of today will see occasional showers and continued gusty winds, these reaching 50-60mph at times across Cumbria and along the coastal fringes, more typically 40-50mph elsewhere. Further minor disruption to travel remains possible, more especially across Cumbria. The Yellow warning for winds in force for north Lancashire and Cumbria will expire at 1800 this evening. There is a small risk of gusts in excess of 60mph affecting the coasts around the Wirral and Merseyside for a time this evening although this is unlikely to cause any new warnings to be issued.

Similar conditions will prevail throughout this evening and overnight with further blustery showers brought in on a fresh to strong west to northwest wind, touching gale force at times around the coast.

Tomorrow will turn increasingly wet from the northwest with extensive rain across the region through the afternoon and still a fresh to strong westerly wind. A Yellow Warning is in force for tomorrow’s rainfall and has been updated to include rather more of the region.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html

Today’s Flood Guidance Statement (shown above) is showing Cumbria, Lancashire and Greater Manchester at Yellow (Low) flood risk tomorrow in response to the forecast rainfall and its effect on river levels.

After tomorrow’s rain has moved through, although the pattern remains unsettled and rather windy, there are no further major rain/wind events on the immediate horizon. I guess for that at least we can be grateful.

Kind regards,

Alan Goodman; Met Office Regional Advisor – NW England

Flood_Guidance-3-1-2012

Another deep low pressure centre is set to scuttle across northern Scotland later tonight and tomorrow morning, bringing a period of wet and windy weather to all the region.

The main period of heavy rain is likely to be during the second half of tonight. This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement, attached above, has Cumbria, Lancashire and Greater Manchester shaded Yellow (Low Flood Risk) for tomorrow and Wednesday with the commentary suggesting that either river and/or surface water issues may be the contributing factor to the elevated flood risk.

As the main rain area clears away around breakfast time tomorrow morning so the westerly winds will strengthen. As with all the previous strong wind events so far this winter it looks almost certain now that Cumbria will again take the highest gusts with 60-70mph possible for a time between around mid-morning and mid-afternoon. These could cause some issues for high-sided vehicles, especially on the more elevated/exposed sections of the M6 and the other higher-level routes. A few trees may also succumb with the potential for minor travel disruption across the northern half of Cumbria. Further south across the rest of Cumbria and into Lancashire maximum gusts will be typically in the 50-60mph bracket and further south across Cheshire 40-50mph with little, if any impacts
expected here. The current severe weather Alert for wind which covers the entire region, will be re-issued shortly to more accurately reflect those areas now considered at risk from disruptive gusts.

Beyond tomorrow the concern is for further rain crossing the region during Wednesday and the possibility of any additional river/surface water flooding, hence the continuation of the low flood risk for Cumbria, Lancashire and Greater Manchester.

All current warnings can, of course, be checked either via the web site http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html
That’s just about where we stand at present,

An update briefing will be issued tomorrow,

In the meantime please call if you require clarification on any of the above,

Regards,

Alan Goodman; Met Office Regional Advisor – NW England

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pws/contact.html

Flood_Guidance-2-1-2012

Below are the documents that were presented at the community information day on Friday 11 November and Saturday 12 November.

Current Proposals November 2011

Cockermouth Historic Flooding Outlines

Historic flooding in Cockermouth

Cockermouth flood risk management Plan (November 2011)

Cockermouth Flood Risk Management Q & A

The Environment Agency’s approach to River Maintenance