Good morning colleagues,
The main focus of attention today is the effect of the strengthening S to SW winds on the lunchtime high tide up and down the Northwest coastline. Due to the medium/high risk of flooding today in other parts of England and Wales an early Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) was issued this morning at 0700. This confirms the coastal flood risk for ourselves as Yellow (low risk) throughout today with a medium likelihood of minor impacts occurring either side of today’s lunchtime high tide. Just to remind you this is scheduled for 1200 at Liverpool, 1155 at Blackpool, 1208 at Heysham and 1218 at Workington. The FGS highlights the risk of flooding resulting from a combination of the high astronomical tide, the strong winds, large waves and the surge due to the effect of the winds on the tide.
After this morning’s ice warning expires at 1100 the only other severe weather warning in force across the Northwest will be the Yellow for the winds which currently runs until 0300 tomorrow morning for an area including the whole of west Cumbria, the western half of Lancashire, all of Merseyside, the western end of Greater Manchester and the northwestern end of Cheshire. Along the coast gusts of 50-60mph will develop at times today, especially in association with passing showers, the odd gust perhaps exceeding 60mph. Away from the immediate coast occasional gusts of 40-50mph are possible, again most likely as showers come through. This evening, however, as the direction veers from S to SW to more of a W to SW so some of the stronger gusts along the coast may penetrate further inland for a time and this may necessitate a redrawing of the eastern boundary of the warning. More on this later this morning if and when it is revised. By midnight the winds should be easing down nicely.
Beyond today the weather will remain in unsettled mode throughout the coming week with continued vigilance advised.
I will update you regarding any changes to the strong wind warning, other than that I wish you all a good day.
With kind regards,
Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)