Weather update

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Hi all

The fine weather has finally broken and we are going to be experiencing a rather more wet period throughout today and tomorrow. The current forecast is as follows:-

Heavy and persistent rainfall is expected late Friday into Saturday morning, with some isolated, short torrential bursts likely. The generally light rain over Cumbria this morning is forecast to increase from around 3pm today and to continue over Cumbria, spreading southwards to most of the region by around 5am Saturday morning.

The highest rainfall amounts will be over high ground in Cumbria. The front will give several hours of persistent rain with some particularly heavy downpours, the rain is likely to continue until after midday on Saturday.

However we do have very dry catchments and low river levels which is positive as the likelihood of any minor impacts from river flooding is low. As the day goes on we will be monitoring the effects of the rainfall and there may be a chance that later today we may issue some Flood Alerts for some areas of Cumbria.

The forecast for late Saturday and Sunday is for occasional showers, with more rain on Monday.

Many thanks

Maria Ullyart

Flood Resilience Advisor
Environment Agency

June Weather Update

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Hi All,

Just an update on the weather forecast for the coming days.  Saturday is the day of most concern due to the forecast for thunderstorms but there is still a lot of uncertainty around where these thunderstorms may hit.  We have been updating all the District Councils, Lead Local Flood Authority and emergency services with this information also.

Headline

Turning more unsettled late Friday onwards, particularly on Saturday when disruptive rainfall is possible..

Outbreaks of mainly light rain in far western parts today, dry elsewhere. However, by Friday evening, very warm and moist air is drawn northwards from the continent across England and Wales bringing outbreaks of rain or showers into the west. A showery day on Saturday with the potential for isolated very heavy and thundery downpours locally. The central belt of the country looks most likely to see these, however details remain uncertain.

Cooler air by Sunday and dry for most, but isolated heavy showers may form in the south-westerly breeze. Heavy showers again on Monday, with further potential for organised, thundery rain crossing into southern England however details remain uncertain. A showery set-up is likely on Tuesday, some of which may be heavy at times.

Rainfall Forecast NW and Cumbria

Saturday 7 June 2014

– Very warm and moist air will be dragged northwards from the continent, interacting with a cold front which moves in from the west early Saturday.

– Thunderstorms are likely to be associated with this, with the potential for isolated heavy downpours. Hail is also possible;

– Most likely rainfall totals will be for widespread 10-20mm with locally 30mm falling in a period of 3-6hrs or less.

– Rainfall is unlikely to be tied to the high ground with low-lying areas also vulnerable;

– There is a high likelihood that HRAs will be required;

– – Whilst there is good confidence in the broadscale meteorological detail, confidence continues to remain low on the location of the most intense downpours. .

– Isolated but heavy showers are likely to follow the main rainfall feature late into Saturday night.

Sunday 8 June 2014

– Most areas will remain dry on Sunday, however isolated showers are expected to move through the area on the southwesterly breeze. Some of these have the potential to be heavy, giving totals of 10mm in 1 hour.

– Showers will probably be heaviest during the afternoon in response to daytime heating – and perhaps most likely towards the west of the region;

– Most likely widespread accumulations will remain low, however some spots may see 10-15mm in 3 – 6hrs;

– There is a low likelihood that HRAs will be required.

Monday 9 June 2014

– Showers will move northwards through the region on Monday some of which may be heavy at times.

– Widespread totals will be in the order of 5-15mm, with the majority of this falling in 3-6hrs or less;

– There is a low probability that these showers will intensify and become more widespread for a time during Monday increasing the rainfall totals locally.

– There is a low likelihood that HRAs will be required.

Tuesday 10 June 2014

– Showers are expected to move across the region throughout the day on the south-westerly breeze.

– They will probably be heaviest during the afternoon in response to daytime heating.

– Most of these showers are expected to be light to moderate,

 

Many thanks,

Maria Ullyart

Flood Resilience Advisor
Environment Agency

Weather Briefing for Sunday 23rd and Monday 24th February 2014

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Dear All,

For Sunday and Monday it is YELLOW (Low Risk) for Cumbria.

Expected Impacts

Heavy rain is forecast for Cumbria late Saturday night, all of Sunday and into Monday morning.
In terms of the impacts locally in Cumbria we currently have 2 Flood Alerts in force for the Upper Derwent due to Derwentwater levels remaining high and the Rothay, Brathay, Winster and Leven Catchments due to the high level of Windermere.

The rain on Sunday and Monday will be heavy and prolonged enough and falling on to saturated ground that minor impacts could occur in Cumbria. Impacts include the localised flooding of land, roads and perhaps some individual properties. It is likely a number of Fluvial Flood Alerts and even possible that an odd Flood Warning may be issued as confidence in the rainfall forecast increases and rivers begin to respond to the rainfall. It is difficult to pinpoint at this time which areas are most likely to be affected.
The situation is being closely monitored by our Duty Officers and our Field Teams have been out clearing grids and debris screens..

The coastal flood risk is VERY LOW throughout the next five days as astronomical high tides remain on the lower side this weekend but there may be some large waves generated by forecast strong south-westerly winds over the weekend and into Monday. There are signs of a switch in wind direction to a colder northerly direction into next weekend, which will coincide with next high astronomical spring tides cycle from 28th February 2014 to the 5th March 2014.

General Situation

Late Saturday night and through to Monday morning it is expected that rainfall will be widespread 10-20 mm across the region in 24 hours.
High likelihood of 30mm and 40mm in 12 hour totals in upland areas of Cumbria
Up to 80-90 mm (over a 24 hour period) may be recorded on the Cumbrian Fells, with long spells of rain with rates of 4-8 mm per hour.

The Met Office Severe Weather Warning Service have issued a Yellow Alert of Rain for North West England : Cumbria valid from 0015 Sun 23 Feb to 0600 Mon 24 Feb 2014
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=nw&from=rss&sn=3ACE07E8-313A-3F1F-62BA-53E6A2D40516_1_NW

Please continue to monitor weather forecasts and the Met Office and Environment Agency websites for Weather Warnings and for Flood Alerts and Warnings in Force.
Best regards
David

David Snaith
North Area Flood Resilience Team
Environment Agency
Ghyll Mount, Gillan Way, Penrith 40 Business Park, Penrith, Cumbria