A major development now taking place well to the southwest of the UK will result in a deep low pressure centre tracking NE’wards into the country over the next 36 hours. Copious rainfall will be generated by the system across a good swathe of the UK, some places also at risk from strong to gale force winds, and the Met Office has Yellow Alerts in place for the whole of northwest England throughout Monday and Tuesday.
There remains some uncertainty as to exactly where will see the heaviest and potentially most disruptive rainfall, but the latest predictive sequence I can offer is as follows;
TODAY (23 September):
Outbreaks of rain will spread from the south later today, reaching Cheshire late this afternoon or early this evening then pushing on northwards to remaining areas this evening. There will be further rain at times across the region through the night but, borne on a freshening E to NE wind, I expect the Pennines to ‘do their job’ and filter out most of the heavier rain, hence no disruption is anticipated in the overnight period with some drier interludes quite possible.
The main threat of any disruptive rainfall arrives through the course of tomorrow when areas of more persistent and, at times, heavy rain spread northwards. The main risk time for this heavier rain looks like being through Monday afternoon and early evening, before drier conditions follow from the south through the evening. Hard to specify exactly where will catch the heavier stuff so I’m afraid it’s a blanket warning at the moment. Thereafter the remainder of Monday evening along with Monday night does not appear to pose any additional threat from rainfall although winds could become quite strong for a time on Monday night, more on this aspect tomorrow morning.
As the low begins to lose power we’ll be looking at a couple of potentially showery days, especially Tuesday. There will still be the potential for one or two sharp downpours, something to bear in mind, although the risk of any associated disruption should steadily diminish through this period. Continue reading