The rain across Lancashire and Cumbria has now diminished to little more than a few patches here and there and with the situation on the ground improving so the afternoon edition of the Flood Guidance Statement was able to show a reduced flood risk from amber to yellow with a low likelihood of significant impacts still applying to both counties. In tandem with this the Met Office amber warning was cancelled just after 1500, leaving the region under a single yellow warning, the graphical bits of which are displayed below. As you can see it’s now only N/NE Lancashire and Cumbria still at risk from any significant impacts over the next 12 hours. The upcoming feature of concern is the rain band associated with the transition to clearer conditions, set to move in between approx 2100 and 2300 this evening. There’ll be some heavy rain on this, especially over Cumbria, but it should be a relatively short-lived affair and even allowing for a few showers in the early hours of Monday, additional accumulations of rain will be modest in comparison with what fell earlier today and overnight. The power of the Cumbrian mountains to generate rain when fed the right air supply never ceases to impress and the EA gauge at Seathwaite recorded 178mm in the 12 hours to 0845 this morning. However, one didn’t have to travel very far out from the central fell area of the Lake District to see the totals tail off rapidly.
As for tomorrow night’s weather system – still some uncertainty as to the northern edge of the associated rain area but hopefully it will stay wholly to the south of Cumbria and N Lancs. The next system, following quick on its heels, will likely take a more northern track and further rain looks a surer bet during Tuesday.
In the meantime have a good rest of Sunday,
Alan Goodman; Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies)