Weather Update

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SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
We will start the weekend in a colder, westerly airflow with some wintry showers, mainly for Cumbria but perhaps a few reaching further south into Lancashire, Merseyside and Greater Manchester. Slight accumulations of snow may result during Saturday, more especially over the higher ground of Cumbria. Yesterday’s yellow alert for snow/ice over Cumbria is due to be updated shortly. In the meantime I’m attaching yesterday’s version.
During Sunday the mood will reverse as milder air brings further rain across all parts, although before the colder air gets displaced there could be a little sleet or snow for a time, more especially across the higher ground of the Pennines and Cumbria.
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK:
The Atlantic low pressure system bringing the rain and temporary return to milder conditions later on Sunday will likely prove to be another intense affair as it passes to the north of the UK later on Sunday and into Monday. Another strong wind episode looks on the cards and with the weekend approaching we have this morning issued an early yellow alert for winds (very low likelihood of medium level impacts) across a large swathe of the UK including all of Northwest England for the whole of Monday. This alert will be refined on a day-by-day basis as the event draws nearer. Once the system gets well clear of our shores it’s a return to colder conditions later on Monday and into Tuesday with wintry showers and overnight frost.
Enough ? For sure.
All the various severe weather warnings/alerts are attached above for your convenience. For details of the storm-naming system please refer to http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/uk-storm-centre

UK Storm Centre
Find out the latest information about storms in the UK as we name them as part of our Name our Storms project.
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Update from the Met Office

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The rain band associated with storm ‘Frank’ is yielding extensive rain across Cumbria this morning whilst across Lancashire the rain is less widespread but with some localised heavier interludes showing on the radar. Keswick in Cumbria has recorded 43.4mm of rain since the event began yesterday evening up to 1100.

The S’ly winds have caused some minor impacts and earlier today a gust of 70mph was recorded at St. Bees Head.

THE NEXT FEW HOURS:

The rain will progress on eastwards and should be through Cumbria and Lancashire by around 1300 give or take a little. Whilst the winds have moderated somewhat in the last hour or so we are keeping careful watch on a small scale development that is set to run across N Ireland into Scotland and which may re-invigorate the winds for a short time, more particularly across the N and W of Cumbria with renewed gusts of 60-65mph or so, especially along the Solway coast, until the winds moderate properly from around mid-afternoon onwards.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD:

Although there’s likely to be some further rain for a time overnight, along with some showery interludes during tomorrow, amounts of rain should be relatively small with few, if any fresh impacts resulting. New Years Eve looks like turning dry and chilly with the possibility of the first frost inland for some considerable time. Given all the wetness around a few icy patches are possible on untreated surfaces early on Friday morning.

Through Friday and into the weekend further episodes of unsettled, rather windy weather look set to affect the Northwest, although with winds for a time coming more from a SE’ly or ESE’ly direction that should help to limit the amount of rain reaching the areas that need it least. However, there sadly remains no proper end in sight to the unsettled spell as we head into January.

Forecast from Met Office

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There remains a fair degree of uncertainty as to exactly where across northern England the rainfall will be most persistent/heaviest and consequently where the largest accumulations will be, and also how those accumulations will translate into impacts. The latest data to hand places the largest rainfall totals across the central, S and SE’ern parts of Cumbria and just over the border into N Yorkshire but all will depend upon how what is a complex meteorological set-up, resolves itself.
General weather sequence:
Tomorrow’s rain will reach Lancashire and then Cumbria approximately between midday and early afternoon. Thereafter it’s a case of outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, especially over the higher ground, through until later on Saturday. The rain will likely wax and wane, both in areal extent and in intensity, with a few drier interludes from time to time. As Saturday progresses so the rain should become lighter and increasingly fragmented.
Severe weather warning status:
Yesterday’s amber rainfall alert covering approximately the eastern two thirds of Cumbria remains in force and has just been updated (see attached). The risk rating remains the same (medium likelihood of medium level impacts) as does the validity time (from midnight tomorrow night until midnight Saturday/Sunday).
Also please note that a separate yellow alert for rain also remains in force (low likelihood of medium level impacts) across the rest of Cumbria and Lancashire N of approximately Preston, valid from 1500 tomorrow afternoon until midnight Saturday/Sunday (attached above). Both these warnings are subject to constant review and may be updated again later today.
This morning’s Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) shows Cumbria on yellow (low flood risk) through Friday then amber (medium flood risk) during Saturday and back to yellow for Sunday for residual river impacts. Lancashire remains on yellow throughout the weekend. The flood risk through the period will be a combination of surface water-based impacts and those due to river response.
Looking beyond Boxing Day:
Sunday is looking largely dry, once any residual light rain has cleared up. However, further rain is expected in sometime during Monday and again later on Tuesday. Amounts hard to specify at this time range but one thing to note is the potential for some very strong winds as we head towards the middle of next week. More on this aspect once we’ve got the weekend’s rainfall dealt with.

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